GAZ-SYSTEM published survey results on the Hydrogen map of Poland
GAZ-SYSTEM has completed a study The Hydrogen Map of Poland covering 178 hydrogen production, consumption, distribution and storage projects in Poland.
Conclusions from the data provided by survey respondents demonstrate that the declared domestic production will be increasing after 2030, and will stabilise at 1.11 million tons per year after 2040, with the highest concentration of production projects in North-West Poland. The hydrogen consumption figures collected in the survey also show an upward trend reaching 1.27 million tons in 2030 up to 2.62 million tons in 2040, with the highest demand reported in the central and south-west regions.
A comparison of production and consumption figures reveals a potential shortage of domestic production relative to potential demand. This implies that the only solution to meet the declared demand for hydrogen may be through increased domestic production or imports ranging from 0.8 million tons in 2030 to 1.4 million tons in 2040.
The main barriers to hydrogen market development include the absence of available transmission infrastructure and barely emerging cooperation between hydrogen producers and consumers.
- We expect lots of work and challenges ahead; 2025 will be another very intense year for the company as regards energy transition. An amendment to the Energy Law signed on 12 December incorporates new regulations for hydrogen sector into the legal system. This step will certainly contribute to the removal of barriers to the development of hydrogen market, as well as reduce the investment uncertainty. GAZ-SYSTEM is planning certain initiatives to integrate the future hydrogen market participants by facilitating and enhancing information exchange and cooperation between producers and consumers. We will also work on the concept of the National Hydrogen Network and the development of feasibility studies for hydrogen transmission infrastructure - said Sławomir Hinc, President of GAZ-SYSTEM Management Board.
Survey respondents declared that their decisions on undertaking hydrogen projects in both segments i.e. production and consumption depend on the development and ultimate routing of hydrogen transmission network in Poland.
As part of the Hydrogen Map of Poland, the company received a total of 64 questionnaires covering 199 projects in all surveyed areas of hydrogen market (production, consumption, distribution and storage). A total of 178 projects providing complete information was accepted for detailed analysis.
The survey was conducted by GAZ-SYSTEM in Q2 and Q3 2024, including two webinars attended by over 200 representatives of various branches of industry and business operating in the market.
The results of the Hydrogen Map of Poland constitute a summary of the collected and quantified responses provided in questionnaires. The data presented below are for information purposes only and demonstrate indicative hydrogen production and consumption potential as declared by the respondents. The following information shall not be regarded as the Company’s commitment to implement any binding measures, nor does it reflect the official position of GAZ-SYSTEM.
DETAILED SURVEY RESULTS
1. DECLARED PRODUCTION POTENTIAL
Based on the survey results, hydrogen production volume is expected to surge from 2029 onwards.
After 2030, a significant increase in hydrogen production is envisaged, while production volume is to remain stable (at 1.11 million tons H2) from 2040 onwards.
The largest number of hydrogen production projects was reported in North-West Poland, in Lubuskie, Zachodniopomorskie and Pomorskie provinces. The highest planned hydrogen production capacity (0.84 million tons H2 in 2040) is reported in the same area, and it is forecast to grow most rapidly after 2030 compared to the rest of the country.
The data above are derived from survey results and reflect the respondents’ declarations only. They should not be considered as binding for the purpose of forecasts or similar applications.According to the survey data collected, the planned electrolyser capacity will reach 5.6 GWe in 2030, and the target electrolyser capacity of 9 GWe will be reached in 2050.
The Polish Hydrogen Strategy provides for the installation of 2 GWe of electrolyser capacity by 2030.
A vast majority of hydrogen production projects declared in the survey are at the stage of preliminary analysis, which is due to the high investment uncertainty and insufficient maturity of the hydrogen market in Poland, including the absence of transmission infrastructure. The development of hydrogen transmission network requires determination of particular implementation stages of each of the reported projects starting from the Final Investment Decision until project commissioning.
2. DECLARED CONSUMPTION POTENTIAL
The volume of hydrogen consumption is expected to surge rapidly after 2030 (1.27 million tons) reaching up to 2.62 million tons in 2040, and afterwards will stabilise at 2.72 million tons in 2050.
The highest demand for hydrogen at 2.13 million tons (2040) is declared by entities located in Wielkopolska, in South-West and Central Poland, mainly in Dolnośląskie, Śląskie, Mazowieckie and Kujawsko-Pomorskie provinces.
The data above are derived from survey results and reflect the respondents’ declarations only. They should not be considered as binding for the purpose of forecast or similar applications.Higher demand for hydrogen is declared mainly by business operating in industrial sector and combined heat and power plants. Likewise with respect to production, a vast majority of hydrogen consumption projects reported in the survey is at the stage of preliminary analysis.
3. DECLARED STORAGE CAPACITY
The total declared hydrogen storage capacity amounts to approx. 13,000 tons.
The existing hydrogen storage potential is insufficient to meet the demand and to ensure seamless functioning of the hydrogen economy in Poland. It is based solely on the planned three (3) underground hydrogen storage facilities.
The survey results suggest high interest in hydrogen storage services. Future demand for storage services was reported by 28 entities declaring planned hydrogen production capacity at 0.54 million tons and 6 entities declaring planned hydrogen consumption at 0.04 million tons.
4. CONCLUSIONS
According to the data declared in the survey it is evident that the only solution to meet the demand for hydrogen will be through imports, as the planned domestic renewable hydrogen production capacity is lower than the declared demand.
The development of a concept of hydrogen transmission system is essential to stimulate growth of hydrogen market in Poland, including bridging the supply and demand gap (deficit of domestic production compared to demand) with hydrogen imports.
Given the reported volumes of produced and consumed hydrogen, the need for hydrogen transmission infrastructure will arise already in the 2030 -2035 period.
It is therefore fundamental to design the structure of hydrogen market in Poland that will combine production capacity with consumption potential. According to the survey results, the entities interested in hydrogen production have not yet established relationships with potential consumers. Dispersed production facilities located in close proximity to one another can be combined in hydrogen hubs to achieve technical and economic optimisation.
Based on the information collected in the survey, domestic hydrogen production (0.5 million tons) may not suffice to meet the anticipated demand (1.1 million tons) already in 2030. Domestic production (1 million tons) of hydrogen will satisfy only up to 40 % of surging demand (estimated at 2.4 million tons) expected in 2030 - 2035. According to the survey data collected, the procurement of volumes ranging from 0.8 million tons in 2030 to 1.4 million tons in 2040 will be required to meet the domestic demand for hydrogen e.g. through imports.
Based on the information provided by respondents, the planned storage capacity (13,000 tons) corresponds only to 0.5% of hydrogen consumption volume anticipated in 2035. Due to the unreliability of RES and the required continuity of hydrogen supply to consumers, all plans for the construction of hydrogen storage facilities need to be thoroughly revised.
5. GAZ-SYSTEM ON THE WAY FORWARDFollowing the completion of the survey data collection, further activities related to the information so obtained have been planned.
As part of further endeavours to present the results of the study and follow-up activities planned by GAZ-SYSTEM, the company will organise workshops addressing the entities participating in the Hydrogen Map of Poland survey.
The company also considers further dialogue with individual survey participants in order to update the information on the projects reported in questionnaires.
Furthermore, the company intends to undertake measures supporting the development of hydrogen market and enabling entities producing and using hydrogen to establish business relations by means of information exchange tool or platform established by GAZ-SYSTEM.
The company will also proceed with the analysis and development of the first National Hydrogen Network concept, as well as initiate the development of a Feasibility Study for individual components of hydrogen transmission infrastructure, both domestic and cross-border.
The Hydrogen Map of Poland survey results were published under the honorary patronage of:
- Government Plenipotentiary for Strategic Energy Infrastructure
- The Ministry of Industry
- The Ministry of Climate and Environment.
Presentation - Hydrogen Map of Poland - summary of the survey (PL).
